Interesting developments in tonight’s budget when it comes to the NDIS. The government state that reforms to the national disability insurance scheme that supports more than 600,000 Australians will ensure it is on a more financially sustainable footing going forward.

NDIS costs have been projected to rise from $44.3bn in 2024 to more than $90bn by the decade’s end, and the budget has looked at savings that will come from changes proposed in a bill introduced in March that will overhaul how funding plans for NDIS recipients are approved and what supports can be funded.

This includes people with mild forms of autism and developmental delay, who will no longer gain automatic access to the scheme when “access lists” of eligible medical diagnoses are axed within five years.

Last month, Former Productivity Commission boss Gary Banks conceded the organisation got it wrong when it recommended the creation of the NDIS and warned that Labor’s proposed overhaul would do little to reduce the program’s budget trajectory.

It was originally argued the NDIS would pay for itself by getting more disabled people into the workforce.

The Australian government actuary predicts more than 1 million people will be on the NDIS by 2032, despite initial estimates that the scheme would service just 400,000 people at maturity.

The budget allocates $161 million to upgrading the NDIS quality and safeguards commission’s IT systems, $130 million to consult on the NDIS review, and $84 million for fraud detection.

The media release from the Ministers for the Department of Social Services tells a much brighter story with a heading of ‘Budget delivers for people with a disability’.